Russia can still disrupt the international order, threaten its neighbors and command attention through its nuclear arsenal. But the broader foundations of great-power status—economic strength, demographic vitality, conventional military capability and dependable alliances—have eroded. Russia is no longer a great power.
This is despite President Trump’s attempts to make Russia great again and his friends and family richer through business dealings in that part of the world.
Russia lost global superpower status after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 triggering fragmentation of the Warsaw Pact countries and the breakaway of two Russian constituent republics, Belarus and Ukraine.
International relations specialists weigh 11 specific elements of national power to compare nations — and Russia is deficient in most. The more quantifiable elements are economic strength, population dynamics, military capability and diplomatic standing, particularly the number and quality of dependable allies.
Many still seem to have Soviet Russia in mind when discussing great power issues, but this is not Stalin’s Russia. Russia’s population ranks ninth in the world and is shrinking, about 144 million today versus 286.7 million in 1989. Russia’s population is declining steadily due to low birth rates, high death rates, massive war casualties and emigration to avoid the war. Demographic projections show this downward trend causing long-term economic challenges.
Economic weakness
The economy is one of Russia’s greatest weaknesses. Although Russia has significant natural resources, Russian leaders have never diversified the economy, which is relatively small and resource based. Russia faces serious limitations in advanced technology, and modern great-power competition depends on leadership in fields such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, aerospace industry, telecommunications, robotics and advanced manufacturing.
A great power requires a large and diversified economy capable of supporting sustained military spending and technological and infrastructure development that provide global economic influence. A weak economy cannot support a world class military establishment.
Declining population
A large and healthy population is an important source of national power because it provides workers, consumers, soldiers, scientists and entrepreneurs. Population decline weakens a country’s economic potential and military capacity and makes it more difficult to maintain the human resources needed for long-term global competition. Demographers conclude Russia can’t recover from the downward spiral President Putin has set in motion, and the damage done to Russia’s economy by his war of choice means it will take decades to recover, if ever.
Military weakness
Assessing Russia’s military strength is complicated. Its nuclear arsenal is Russia’s most important source of military power because nuclear weapons deter attacks and ensure it remains a consideration in international security. But nuclear weapons really only have one function—to deter other states from using weapons of mass destruction against Russia or trying to seize Russian territory. Using nuclear weapons in other than the most extreme circumstances invites national destruction. This limited utility means nuclear weapons alone do not make a country a great power.
The war with Ukraine has revealed significant weaknesses in Russia’s conventional military performance, including problems with logistics, equipment, training, leadership and the ability to sustain large-scale military operations. Despite possessing a much larger military and significantly greater resources, Russia’s faltering effort to defeat Ukraine begs the question whether Russia will even be a significant regional power, while demonstrating that it’s certainly no longer a great global power.
The wild card that Russia has at its disposal is the world’s largest arsenal of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, estimated to be about 5,500 deployed nuclear warheads.
Russia’s decline in conventional forces might suggest to some that Russia has a lower threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. But to what end? Nuclear weapons really only have limited function—to deter other states from using weapons of mass destruction against Russia or trying to seize Russian territory. Either scenario is unlikely.
In addition, breaching the 80-year taboo against use of nuclear weapons would be a desperate roll of the dice because using nuclear weapons in other than the most extreme circumstances invites national destruction. Their limited utility means nuclear weapons alone do not make Russia a great power.
Declining diplomatic influence
Russia’s diplomatic influence is more limited than its reputation suggests. Moscow retains relationships in Africa and Central Asia and declining influence in the Middle East, and its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council gives it some diplomatic influence. However, most of Russia’s relationships are based on security cooperation, arms sales, energy or opposition to Western influence rather than on the broad economic and institutional connections associated with great power status.
Russia shares land borders with 14 countries, none of which could be described as dependable allies. Further, Russia is experiencing significant diplomatic isolation as a consequence of its actions in Ukraine and the corresponding loss of influence and relationships limit its ability to influence International relations.
The implications for the U.S. and NATO
A declining Russia poses significant implications for U.S. and NATO defense strategies. For decades, national security assessments have identified Russia and China as the primary military threats to the U.S. and Russia’s decline permits increased focus on security issues in the Pacific region.
Russia’s weakened military capabilities make a direct confrontation with NATO less likely as the Kremlin struggles to sustain its military industrial complex with declining resources. But while a weakened Russia may reduce the immediate threat of conventional military confrontation, Russia could resort to increased hybrid attacks, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, to promote distrust and assert influence.
NATO must adapt its strategies to address new threats shifting focus from conventional military readiness to countering hybrid threats more aggressively. While continuing to increase defense spending, the European members of NATO should prioritize political unity because Russia’s decline will test NATO’s cohesion if members develop differing perceptions of the threat level and appropriate responses. Both the U.S. and NATO should strengthen alliances with Eastern European countries to deter Russian aggression and promote regional security.
Economic weakness, serious demographic problems, lack of capable allies and limitations in conventional military capability prevent Russia from achieving the national power rankings that define a great power. Currently, Russia is a rogue actor led by a war criminal under an arrest warrant from the International Court of Justice for the unlawful deportation and transfer of at least 20,000 Ukrainian children.
