Intelligence agencies are warning NATO to expect a Russian provocation against a NATO member within weeks. Poland and the Baltic countries are preparing for attacks against their critical infrastructure. And Russia already sent drones into Romanian and Polish airspace to test NATO responses.
Russian President Putin is becoming increasingly frustrated by his stalled effort to defeat Ukraine, and intelligence analysts assess his risk assessment may be changing. Some analysts warn Russia could take a risky action against a NATO country in an attempt to regain leverage.
A direct military attack against a NATO member that could trigger Article 5 responses and significantly escalate the conflict isn’t likely. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is the core collective defense commitment of the alliance. It states that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, requiring each ally to assist the attacked nation.
‘Grey zone’ attacks possible
The Russian force that invaded Ukraine in 2022 has been destroyed, and the force now in the field is poorly trained and poorly lead. Desertions are rising and the casualty rate exceeds available replacements. In their current state, Russia’s armed forces can’t handle Ukraine, so taking on NATO military forces directly seems unlikely.
More probable would be a so-called grey zone attack — an aggressive action just below the threshold of direct military attack that makes it hard to respond with traditional military force.
The goal of a Russian provocation would be to test NATO resolve and cohesion, particularly U.S. responses. The most likely provocation would come in the form of a hybrid attack such as a cyber incident launched from an uncertain source, deniable acts of sabotage or fake news planted to generate conflicts between NATO nations or between political groups within NATO countries.
Response depends on scale of Russian actions
Ultimately, NATO’s response to a Russian provocation should depend on the scale and ambiguity of the action, balancing collective defense obligations against the risk of further escalation. NATO could respond through diplomatic consultations, public attribution, cyber assistance and additional economic sanctions without triggering armed conflict.
But first and foremost, NATO political leaders must be prepared to respond to a Russian provocation in a manner that demonstrates resolve. Ideally, given the large number of threat warnings lately, NATO ambassadors likely have already held consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty to discuss the current threat, share intelligence and coordinate possible joint responses. This was done when Poland requested Article 4 consultations following Russian drone incursions in 2025.
NATO military leaders, both on the NATO military committee in Brussels and the NATO military staff at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe Headquarters in Mons, Belgium, likely have developed a menu of response options and shared them with NATO’s political authorities.
Leveraging Ukraine’s expertise
To deter more serious provocations, NATO’s response to Russian provocations must be strong enough to affect Putin’s risk calculation. Soft options like public disclosure and diplomatic protest, diplomatic consultations alone or levying additional sanctions might appear timid and be unlikely to dissuade Putin from further provocations.
Ukrainian intelligence agencies have penetrated Russian military planning and know more about Russian weak points than NATO. Consultation with Ukraine could reveal ways to make NATO’s “grey area” responses targeted and more effective.
For example, some NATO nations have offensive cyber capabilities capable of interfering with Russian military navigation and communication systems that would provide a response more likely to affect Putin’s risk calculation. NATO should quickly release statements identifying Russia as the source of ambiguous attacks. And NATO can demonstrate resolve by increasing surveillance around key infrastructure such as undersea cables and conducting military drills near potential choke points like the Suwalki Gap and near the Kaliningrad exclave.
Given recent intelligence warnings, NATO must be prepared to respond swiftly and forcefully to Russian provocations. It must deter further attempts at undermining alliance cohesion and weakening NATO’s resolve to support Ukraine. To do that, NATO must be ready with a range of options already coordinated among NATO political authorities.
