President Trump says he wants a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “I’d like to meet him this year,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Aug. 25 as he welcomed South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, to the White House
Trump tried engaging with Kim Jong Un three times during his first term, meeting with him once in 2018 and twice in 2019. They even exchanged gushing letters. But nothing happened. Kim continued his programs to test and develop long-range missiles and improve his stockpile of nuclear weapons, despite multiple U.N. resolutions and sanctions. Meanwhile, Kim marches on toward achieving a nuclear capability and long-range missiles that can reach U.S. territory.
A line from Shakespeare’s “Macbeth” neatly characterizes the loud complaints from the international community to North Korea’s continued missile and nuclear testing: “Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.” The sound and fury generated in the wake of each test is like an annoying barking dog as far as Kim is concerned.
Why does Kim force his people to bear the hardships of increasingly stringent sanctions while falling deeper into pariah state status? It’s because North Korea’s primary objectives are to ensure regime survival and to deter the fantom fear of a South Korea/U.S. attack to unify the Korean Peninsula.
Most specialists on North Korea agree that acquiring a demonstrated nuclear capability that can reach the U.S. is considered by Kim to be the only certain insurance against forced regime change. He cannot be pressured or enticed into negotiating away these programs.
The international community keeps proclaiming it unacceptable for North Korea to have a deliverable nuclear capability. But the use of military force to deal with North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, such as bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, is unlikely.
Given the hysterical nature of the regime, it could be expected to respond with conventional strikes against Seoul, South Korea’s capital, which is within artillery range of North Korea. The known and disastrous consequences of even a conventional war on the Korean Peninsula are just too great to risk a military option.
Nuclear deterrence can work
The nuclear deterrence policy has prevented the use of Soviet and then Russian nuclear weapons since the dawn of the nuclear age. Even in the depths of major crises like the Cuban missile crisis, nuclear use was not considered a viable option. Nuclear deterrence has worked against Russia, and it will work against North Korea.
The U.S. and South Korea have no intention of invading North Korea, Kim’s paranoia aside. And as long as their joint conventional capabilities are maintained at high readiness, it’s unlikely the North will attempt to invade the South. While diplomacy should always be on the table, the U.S. needs to articulate a clear and forceful reemphasis of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy to ensure Kim and his military leadership understand the consequences of a nuclear strike.
The 2022 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review states clearly that a North Korean nuclear attack will mean the end of Kim’s reign. “Any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its Allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime. There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive.”
The U.S. currently deploys about 27,000 military personnel in South Korea and another 54,000 in Japan. Since these U.S. forces would be impacted should North Korea launch a nuclear attack, in effect, both Japan and South Korea are covered by a de facto U.S. nuclear umbrella.
Missile defenses are key
While diplomatic efforts and deterrence are important, they are not sufficient and must be backed by capable missile defenses deployed in a manner clearly able to defend against Pyongyang’s missiles. America has been planning defenses with South Korea and Japan for decades on a bilateral basis. And due to President Biden’s initiatives, operational planning, training and exercises are now conducted on a trilateral basis.
All three governments face the same threat from North Korea. Given clear North Korean intent to continue nuclear and missile development programs, the best response is for the U.S., Japan and South Korea to maximize trilateral cooperation in missile defense to ensure an effective defense against nuclear attack is in place should deterrence fail.
The outcome of Kim’s push for long-range missiles loaded with nuclear warheads also has stark proliferation consequences. Some argue that if North Korea is able to evade sanctions sufficiently to develop a long-range missile capability coupled with its nuclear warheads, Japan and South Korea will have no choice but to acquire their own nuclear weapons.
Not much of an upside to a ‘summit’
It might be different if Kim Jong Un requested a meeting with President Trump. But the White House has floated feelers with the North Koreans about a potential meeting and so far has been met with silence.
If President Trump meets with him again, the outcome will likely be the same as his faux summit with Russian President Putin. Just the fact they met will raise Kim’s stature at home, and there will be no tangible results on the key issues of halting North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.
The main result will be “grip and grin” photos of Trump and Kim shaking hands spread around the world as an American president meets with yet another murderous dictator. It will be another failure for U.S. diplomacy.
